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North Qld island in mourning

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Bidey”],”domains”:[“ntnews.com.au”,”cairnspost.com.au”,”goldcoastbulletin.com.au”,”couriermail.com.au”,”newscorpaustralia.com”,”adelaidenow.com.au”,”heraldsun.com.au”,”themercury.com.au”,”news.com.au”,”townsvillebulletin.com.au”,”perthnow.com.au”,”dailytelegraph.com.au”,”geelongadvertiser.com.au”],”references”:[{“id”:{“value”:”030e574ba140b1096a085f77cb4a28f4″,”link”:”http:\/\/api.newsapi.com.au\/content\/v2\/030e574ba140b1096a085f77cb4a28f4″},”origin”:”METHODE”,”originId”:”crop-70ddf7ef64e81c6ab96acc53322f71a4″,”contentType”:”IMAGE”,”referenceType”:”PRIMARY”},{“id”:{“value”:”dc63a6f04600424b15b20d60d3a4fa17″,”link”:”http:\/\/api.newsapi.com.au\/content\/v2\/dc63a6f04600424b15b20d60d3a4fa17″},”origin”:”METHODE”,”originId”:”crop-e6e62d4755a390a88321239e625a2308″,”contentType”:”IMAGE”,”referenceType”:”PRIMARY”},{“id”:{“value”:”62a0183f33f3efebfaf6d3af67684a87″,”link”:”http:\/\/api.newsapi.com.au\/content\/v2\/62a0183f33f3efebfaf6d3af67684a87″},”origin”:”METHODE”,”originId”:”crop-331b28cc3931308620ccec7b32da6a35″,”contentType”:”IMAGE”,”referenceType”:”PRIMARY”},{“id”:{“value”:”3d16f8f4b674a37c34d78d24541eace8″,”link”:”http:\/\/api.newsapi.com.au\/content\/v2\/3d16f8f4b674a37c34d78d24541eace8″},”origin”:”METHODE”,”originId”:”crop-b946879fcab37a7dd963325388d99d1e”,”contentType”:”IMAGE”,”referenceType”:”PRIMARY”}],”locationGeoPoints”:[],”socialTitle”:”Woman dies, two men injured in Palm Island crash”,”seoHeadline”:”Woman dies, two men injured in Palm Island crash”,”userOriginUpdated”:”rileyra”,”systemOriginUpdated”:”WORDPRESS”,”domainOriginUpdated”:”TownsvilleBulletin”,”dynamicMetadata”:{“linkOrigin”:”spp”,”metered”:false,”route”:”news”,”link”:”http:\/\/www.townsvillebulletin.com.au\/news\/woman-dies-in-palm-island-crash\/news-story\/78b38ff3ede6c394dd2897ac5c02e5f0″,”syndicated”:true,”adTarget”:”NEWS”,”sectionCaption”:”News”,”available”:true,”canonical”:”http:\/\/www.townsvillebulletin.com.au\/news\/woman-dies-in-palm-island-crash\/news-story\/78b38ff3ede6c394dd2897ac5c02e5f0″},”urlTitle”:”woman-dies-in-palm-island-crash”,”revision”:6,”body”:” さらに401語

Abdominal Injuries

Le Méridien Opens the Doors of its Chic New Hotel Just in Time for the Winter Olympics

There is no question that South Korea is going to be one of 2018’s biggest destinations—and the momentum of the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games has already begun, sparking new developments across the country. さらに334語

Travel

財長透口風 當沖降稅可望延長

台股當沖降稅自今年4月28日實施,當沖稅率自千分之momo購物網3降低至千分之1.5,為期一年。對於當沖降稅政策是否延長,財政部長許虞哲(29)日表示,目前從稅收來看確實是有效果,「延長實施的機率很高」,預計明年初決定,但延長年限則是未定。據悉,年長至少1年以上。

先前金管會主委顧立雄表示,當沖降稅實施僅1年「不夠穩定」,不利吸引投資,若當沖降稅時程能夠延長,應可增加投資人參與市場的意願。

許虞哲昨在財委會上指出,當沖降稅是否延長,會尊重金管會的看法,而目前金管會還未回文給財政部,應是要評估到年底;但以財政部的角度來看,稅收確實是有增加,且彌補稅收後還有餘額,因此延長實施的機率很高。

若確定繼續實施,明年初財政部會提出法案送至行政院,在明年4月27日當沖降稅施行滿周年前完成修法。但對於延長實施的年限,許虞哲認為,任何租稅優惠都要有實施期限,不能無限期延長,但要延長多久目前還未決定。

根據櫃買中心與證交所統計,在當沖降稅實施以前,上市櫃當沖日均值約為momo購物商城104億元;而在當沖降稅實施後,10月當沖日均值約達到416億元,較實施前擴大4倍,推估10月稅收日均值約在0.64億元,高於當沖降稅上路前的日均值0.31億元,顯示當沖降稅已帶動量能穩健成長。

(工商時報)

122364CD9B899ACC

Cancer Information

如果你當年沒買比特幣

2010年5月22日一個電腦工程師付了10000比特幣,買了一份30美元的比薩。這是現實世界裡首個比特幣交易,那時1比特幣價值約是0.003美分。

2017年5月22日,1比特幣的價格高達2185.89美元。也就是說,當時那筆用來買比薩的比特幣,在2017年5月22日的價值是2180萬美元。如果當初那電腦工程師決定不買30美元的比薩,選擇把那筆比特幣儲存起來,那筆錢今天就相等於約72,900,000美元。

有夠瘋狂吧。

也難怪最近這麼多人搶著要買比特幣。一個本地理財網站的作者就寫道,他因為好奇,一年前花了567美元的閒錢買了比特幣,那時還覺得貴,結果今天他手上比特幣的價值已經漲到八千美元。文章下面不久就有人留言:真後悔當初沒買啊!今天每次談到比特幣,大家反應都一樣:真後悔當初沒買啊!

大家冷靜點。

我問問各位,如果你十年前、七年前或一年前有聽過比特幣這回事,卻沒有馬上投機,是為什麼呢?

我想多數人會說,虛擬貨幣那時還是新東西,這種科技的東西每天都在變,風險很大,那時覺得不應該投機。

如果這是你的答案,那就沒什麼好後悔。最起碼,你的決定一點也不蠢。

那天我在讀Philip E. Tetlock和Dan Gardner寫的《超級預測術》(Superforecasting)。這本書很多很棒的內容,我會陸續分享。但今天我要分享這段:

「這種把『那是不是個好決定?』這問題轉換成『那個決定有沒有帶來好結果?』的想法很常見⋯⋯以撲克牌為例,一個初學者可能過度自信下了很大的賭注,然後幸運地贏了。但這不代表她判斷力好。一個真正的撲克牌玩家可能準確判斷出她勝出的機率較高,下了比較大的賭注,結果不幸輸了。但這不代表她判斷錯誤。」

作者這段其實是在說各種對未來的判斷。但我讀到這段,難免聯想到那些後悔自己當初沒有買比特幣的朋友。

今天我們有後見之明,知道比特幣一直升,至少升到2017年年底。所以我們說:當初沒買比特幣的人都是過於保守的笨蛋,買比特幣的人早就預見未來。

問題是,因為當初買比特幣的人賺了,買比特幣的風險難道有比較低嗎?沒有。你錯過了發一筆財的機會,但也避開了一個沒必要的風險。連股神巴菲特都承認沒買比特幣,你為什麼要捶心肝呢?

就像你去賭博,就算贏了一大筆錢,這不代表你會逢賭必贏。多數賭的人都輸錢不是贏錢,因為有人贏錢,難道賭博風險就小了?事實上,賭博贏了之所以會賺大錢,那恰恰是因為賭博風險很高,賭贏的人極少。要豪賭就應該明白自己承擔多大風險,清楚自己到底輸不輸得起。

這不是說不應該冒險,不是說冒險是不聰明。投資者都知道,世界上沒有回報高風險小的投資。這不只適用於買比特幣投資賭博,也適用於人生。創業成功的人當然會告訴我們,要敢敢出去闖啊!像我早早退學,跟銀行借錢創立自己的公司,買別人沒有想過自己需要的產品。然後你就會成功。你看臉書跟谷歌的創辦人,他們不也敢敢冒險,然後有了今天嗎?

是的,no risk no gain。人生中不可能不冒險,差別只在冒多少險冒什麼險什麼時候冒險。但每個人能承擔或者願意承擔的風險不同。例如L對家庭的責任大,創業失敗會連累家人,不適合拋下家人創業。例如K本來就想做老師,這工作讓她滿足。雖然創業很誘人,但K覺得不值得去冒險然後犧牲現在的安穩生活。那也不是不聰明的決定。

成功者會看不起L和K這些決定。我們都會憑著後見之明建構自己的人生故事。我們當初做的每一個決定,不管那決定背後是多少巧合多大風險,就算那時這麼做不是經過深思熟慮⋯⋯今天回首都像聰明理智的決定。一個在賭場發了大財的人可能會覺得,他那天上雲頂是一生中最聰明的決定。我們也開始覺得:我輟學是對的,我敢敢跟銀行借錢是對的,我決定把公司做大是對的,這些是我一輩子最聰明的決定。但輟學有風險,創業有風險。要成功就要冒險。 不冒險不可能成功,沒有能力和努力不可能成功,但如果有能力和努力卻沒有足夠機緣巧合,成功的機率也不高 —— 因為失敗機率很高,所以才叫冒險啊。

這不是貶低成功者的付出和努力,也不是說他們當初的決定不聰明。他們比你有錢,因為他們做了你不願意或不能做的事情。但他們的路也不是任何人都可以輕易複製,不是我們讀了傳記照著做就行。你願意冒險的話,那祝你好運!

至於比特幣呢?巴菲特說,比特幣是即將破滅的泡沫。我不是專家不做這種預言。我也不會說當年買比特幣的人不應該買,畢竟笑著去銀行的是他們啊。你今天買的話,還會不會有得賺呢?還是比特幣明天就跌你會虧錢?誰知道呢。最重要是你用閒錢來買,損失了也無所謂。而那個當年用比特幣來買比薩的傢伙,為什麼我們一定要以為他在後悔呢?比特幣本來就是用來買東西的,不是嗎?

評論